Melbourne Property Prices Fall 2026: What Borrowers Should Know
The Australian Property Market Is Shifting: Here's What It Means for Your Home Loan
If you've been keeping an eye on the property market lately and feeling a little confused by it all, that's completely understandable. The NAB Housing Monitor for April 2026 just came out, and a lot is going on beneath the surface, particularly if you're weighing up whether to buy, refinance, or put money into property this year.
Prices Are Still Rising But Not Everywhere
Nationally, dwelling prices have gone up 9.3% over the past year, with the median dwelling value now sitting around $900,000. That's a big number. But here's the thing, this growth isn't happening evenly across the country.
Perth and Brisbane are the standouts. On a three-month annualised basis, Perth is running at close to 30% growth and Brisbane around 20%. These markets are being driven by supply-demand imbalances.
Sydney and Melbourne? A different story. Both cities actually recorded price falls in March, Sydney down 0.8% and Melbourne down 2.5% on an annualised basis. This has implications for borrowers in Victoria, like many of our clients here in Bentleigh East and the surrounding suburbs, this matters.
Rents Are Still High And That Affects Investors
Vacancy rates nationally are sitting near record lows at just 1.6%. Rents are still growing at a 5.9% annualised pace. For property investors, this is actually a positive signal, rental demand remains strong even as population growth moderates slightly.
If you've been sitting on the fence about investing in property, conditions like these are worth having a proper conversation about. A well-structured investment loan can change the maths entirely.
New Housing Loan Commitments Are Up, But Watch the Details
Here's something worth knowing. According to the NAB report, new housing loan commitments rose sharply in the second half of 2025. Owner-occupier growth picked up strongly in Q4, following early momentum from investors.
What does this tell us? Buyers are moving. People are acting. And those who have the right loan structure in place are the ones getting into the market, while others are still figuring things out.
One thing to flag, the report notes that owner-occupied loans with LVRs above 90% have ticked up, largely linked to the First Home Guarantee scheme's 5% deposit option. If that's a path you're exploring, it's important to understand what a high LVR loan means for your repayments and which lenders are actually competitive in this space. That's exactly where having a broker in your corner matters.
Construction is Catching up But Slowly
Supply remains tight. There are around 235,000 dwellings currently under construction, about 35% above the pre-pandemic average. Apartment and townhouse starts are outpacing completions, especially in NSW and Queensland.
But here's the catch. Construction costs are still elevated, labour is still stretched, and with renewed pressure from global supply chains, building timelines remain unpredictable. Net additions to dwelling stock are still well below the 2015 peak and lagging population growth.
What This Means If You're in the Market Right Now
Whether you're a first home buyer in Melbourne's south-east, an investor looking at interstate opportunities, or someone sitting on an old variable rate thinking about refinancing, there's one common thread, the market is moving, and your loan structure needs to keep pace with it.
At ASK Financials, we work with 50+ lenders to find the right fit for your situation, not just the one that's easiest to process. And with $2B+ in loans settled and over 200 five-star reviews, we've helped a lot of people navigate markets exactly like this one.
If you want to understand how much you can borrow before prices in your target area shift further, now's a smart time to have that conversation.
Ready to Make Your Next Move?
Speak with our brokers at Ask Financials today to understand your borrowing power and what loan options suit your situation. You can simply call us on 0433 944 055 or book a free consultation here. Also, don’t forget to follow us for regular market updates and mortgage tips on Instagram and LinkedIn.
