Interest Rate Watch & Forecasts — Will the RBA Cut Rates This October/November?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate remains the single most influential lever in the Australian economy, directly impacting the financial well-being of millions of homeowners and savvy investors. After an aggressive hiking cycle, the RBA has smoother flow, and the market is now fixated on the pace and timing of the easing cycle. As we move into the final quarter of 2025, the question on every borrower's mind is simple: Will the RBA cut rates in October or November? Will the central bank deliver the relief many are anticipating? Following a period of aggressive tightening and a recent hold at 3.60% in late September, the financial markets are now dissecting every piece of economic data, searching for the signal that will trigger the next policy shift. The careful balance between easing inflation and supporting a slowing economy provides the answer. At ASK Financials, we understand how closely the financial markets are now going through every relevant data point and searching for the signal that will trigger the next policy shift. For the first-time homeowner or investor, understanding these forecasts is essential for making astute decisions about their most significant financial asset—their home loan.
RBA's Forecast: What to Expect in the November Meeting
The Reserve Bank’s decision-making process is entirely data-dependent. For the October and November 2025 meetings, the Board will be scrutinizing several key economic indicators that will shape their view on the necessity and timing of the next rate cut.
The recent September 2025 decision clearly saw the RBA hold the cash rate steady at 3.60 percent. This major decision was basically supported by stronger-than-expected inflation data in the third quarter and continued signs of resilience in consumer spending. The critical data point that will heavily influence the decision at the November 4, 2025, RBA meeting is the September Quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, usually released in late October. This meticulous quarterly data provides the most comprehensive view of underlying inflationary pressures. If the CPI report shows that inflation is decelerating much faster than the RBA's internal forecasts, a rate cut becomes highly probable. On the flip side, if inflation proves more resilient, the Board will probably choose to remain steady, pushing the next potential move into 2026.
Key data points driving the RBA’s November decision:
Quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data: The October 2025 CPI data will be the most important inputs, as always. The RBA needs definitive evidence that underlying (trimmed mean) inflation is sustainably trending towards the midpoint of the 2−3% target band. Sticky service inflation, particularly in areas like healthcare and education, is the primary headwind.
Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth: The RBA has indicated a willingness to tolerate a slight rise in unemployment to curb inflation. Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in July 2025 showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in June 2025. A sustained increase in joblessness would signal a further slowing of the economy, basically providing a strong case for a rate cut to support employment.
Source - Key Australian industry indicators How to Position Your Home Loan Ahead of Potential Cuts For homeowners, the uncertainty around the RBA's next move is strictly a call to action. This is a crucial time to reevaluate your mortgage structure. At ASK Financials, our buyer's agents are guided by six pillars of expertise—especially Risk Managed and Long-Term Focus—that can help you build a strategy that truly aligns with your personal risk tolerance & financial goals.
Key strategies to consider include:
Reviewing Your Rate: Don't wait a lot for a rate cut to check if you are on the best deal. Lenders are constantly competing for market share, especially in an easing cycle. The difference between your current rate and a competitor's could easily be greater than the next RBA cut itself.
Building a Buffer: Utilize an offset or redraw facility. If you believe rates will fall further, ensuring you have a substantial prepayment or offset balance is the most efficient way to lower your interest cost immediately. If rates drop, your savings will directly reduce the interest charged on the principal.
Fix or Float? The Definitive Pre-Cut Question
Floating (Variable Rate) Immediate Benefit: If the RBA does cut in November or early 2026, you immediately benefit. The floating rate is currently the most popular choice, as borrowers are betting on the continuation of the easing cycle.
Flexibility & Risk: Variable loans offer flexibility as well as financial freedom, allowing extra repayments and refinancing without incurring high break costs. It's quite vulnerable to unforeseen global economic shocks or a rebound in domestic inflation. These events could force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to pause its rate cuts or, however unlikely, even hike interest rates, increasing the repayment burden.
Fixing (Fixed Rate)
Budget Certainty: Offers invaluable security and predictable repayments, quite essential for managing tight household budgets that align with ASK Financials' risk management. Strategic Split: Many experts recommend a split loan, where you fix a portion (e.g., 50-70%) for peace of mind and leave the remainder variable to capture future savings in some manner.
Securing Your Financial Future with Expertise
RBA’s rate cycle is not about guessing; it's truly about applying a disciplined, well-researched strategy. At ASK Financials, our philosophy is greatly anchored in Knowledge & Research, Long-Term Focus, and Risk Managed solutions. Instead of relying on opportunistic or speculative gimmicks, we strive to deliver wealth preservation and appreciation over time. Don't leave your largest financial decision to chance; get a Tailored Loan Strategy backed by decades of experience.
Contact us today at 0433-944-055 or schedule your complimentary consultation call to simplify your loan journey with clear communication, quick approvals, and end-to-end support.
