Good morning and welcome back. Our today’s update on the property market speaks about “Some Australian cities seeing house prices go up, while others are seeing them go down.”

 

Australia’s Housing Market Outlook for 2024 • SQM Research’s mid-year assessment shows varying outcomes across different cities due to shifting economic and geopolitical factors. • External factors such as potential Middle East conflicts and a slowdown in migration rates are influencing the housing market. • The base case scenario is a housing price slowdown for 2024, led by falls in Sydney and Melbourne housing. • Nationally, dwelling prices have risen by 2.5% across Australia’s capital cities, with significant variation among them. • Perth has seen a substantial increase in housing prices, likely to exceed 20% by year-end. • Brisbane and Adelaide have seen unexpected growth in housing prices, with prices expected to rise between 15% to 20% by the end of 2024. • Darwin’s market has remained sluggish, with a 2% decline in prices over the past year. • Melbourne is also seeing a decline in its housing market, with auction clearance rates and rental prices weakened. • Sydney’s housing market has seen a slight decrease, with prices down 0.2% year-to-date. • Hobart has a 1.9% decline in prices, with potential for further declines.

 

As we reach the midpoint of 2024, Australia’s housing market is showing varied outcomes across different cities. A recent update from SQM Research highlights how initial forecasts are being affected by new economic and geopolitical factors. Here’s a breakdown of the current trends and what they mean for investors.

Overall Market Trends

Nationally, dwelling prices across Australia’s capital cities have increased by 2.5% so far this year. However, this growth is not uniform. Significant variations have emerged among different cities, reflecting a mix of unexpected growth and cautious declines.

Cities Experiencing Growth

Perth

Perth’s housing market is booming, with prices expected to rise by over 20% by the end of 2024. This surge is driven by strong employment, interstate migration, and supportive government policies. However, falling commodity prices could pose a risk to this upward momentum.

Brisbane

Brisbane has also seen remarkable growth, with housing prices anticipated to increase by 15% to 20% by year-end. This surpasses earlier predictions, thanks to a robust economy and increasing demand for housing.

Adelaide

Adelaide’s housing market has outpaced expectations with a 12% rise in prices so far this year. The city’s strong economic performance and relatively affordable housing contribute to this growth, which is now projected to reach 15% to 20% by the end of 2024.

Cities Facing Challenges

Sydney

Sydney’s housing market has seen a slight decline, with prices down 0.2% year-to-date. This decrease is expected to continue due to high interest rates and a potential slowdown in population growth. The market remains under pressure, with no clear signs of recovery in the short term.

Melbourne

Melbourne is experiencing a decline in its housing market, with prices expected to drop between 1% and 5%. Weakening auction clearance rates and rental prices reflect ongoing market struggles, consistent with earlier forecasts.

Hobart

Hobart’s housing market has also weakened, with a 1.9% decline in prices. The market is expected to see a total drop of 3% to 7% by the end of the year, aligning with predictions of continued market softness.

Darwin

Darwin’s housing market remains sluggish, with a 2% decline in prices over the past year. Elevated stock levels and a struggling local economy contribute to a flat or falling market outlook.

Canberra

Canberra’s market has shown surprising resilience with a modest 0.8% drop in prices. Although initially expected to face significant declines, recent data suggests a weakening trend, indicating that the earlier pessimistic outlook might still be valid.

Investment Considerations

For investors, these varying market conditions offer both opportunities and risks. Cities like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are showing strong growth potential, while Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, and Darwin present challenges that may require careful consideration.

Stay Informed with ASK Financials

To stay updated on market trends and make informed investment decisions, consider leveraging the insights and analysis provided by ASK Financials. Our team of experts is here to help you navigate the complexities of the housing market and identify the best investment opportunities.

For more information and personalized advice, contact ASK Financials today.